Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

180.5 – 89.88

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.4 ±13.4

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 85.97Rank 5Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 47.63Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

1212Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 46.9Rank 12Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±40

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 21.02Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 57.15Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 11.71Rank 17Record 0-0-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2486, NaN, 1212

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.5 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2486, NaN, 1212

Auto

49.3 27%

Teleop

87.0 48%

Endgame

44.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, NaN, 9997

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.9 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, NaN, 9997

Auto

19.8 23%

Teleop

59.8 70%

Endgame

5.5 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score180.5pts

Blue projected score89.9pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.6
Score range: 58–213
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 178.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.4Season APEX0

49.3Auto19.8

87Teleop59.8

44Endgame5.5

84Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	7
teleop	96	16
endgame	47	22
foul	0	15
total	158	60

Result

Final score

158 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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