Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.56 – 142.79

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

131 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 49.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 96.3 ±57.6

10256Team Scrap Metal

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 23.86Rank 8Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 46.03Rank 17Record 0-0-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.67Rank 18Record 0-0-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.2 ±14.3

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 10.05Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 16.85Rank 15Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 115.89Rank 6Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10256, 9997, 9999

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.6 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10256, 9997, 9999

Auto

9.5 14%

Teleop

24.0 36%

Endgame

32.6 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 996, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.8 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 996, 2403

Auto

31.2 21%

Teleop

71.9 49%

Endgame

43.5 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score91.6pts

Blue projected score142.8pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.2
Score range: 58–177
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 191.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

96.3Season APEX232.2

9.5Auto31.2

24Teleop71.9

32.6Endgame43.5

45Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	26
teleop	52	34
endgame	38	23
foul	30	0
total	131	83

Result

Final score

131 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 49.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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