Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

389.63 – 217.88

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

343 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 619.1 ±15.5

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 111.26Rank 5Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 19.12Rank 15Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 259.25Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.5 ±6

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 118.98Rank 6Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 5.01Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 93.89Rank 14Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2486, 996, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

389.6 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2486, 996, 498

Auto

84.5 22%

Teleop

227.7 59%

Endgame

75.6 19%

Strengths

· 498 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2403, NaN, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.9 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2403, NaN, NaN

Auto

37.7 17%

Teleop

119.9 55%

Endgame

60.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score389.6pts

Blue projected score217.9pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 171.8
Score range: 184–424
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 483 vs event baseline 190.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

619.1Season APEX175.5

84.5Auto37.7

227.7Teleop119.9

75.6Endgame60.3

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	74
teleop	169	66
endgame	68	0
foul	15	0
total	343	140

Result

Final score

343 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 pts

Match videos

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