Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.57 – 120.49

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

140 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 526.5 ±10.4

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 43.83Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 62.02Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 48.72Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.7 ±12.8

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 72.22Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 32.09Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 16.18Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10114, 3243, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10114, 3243, 2403

Auto

32.8 22%

Teleop

86.9 58%

Endgame

29.6 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3216, 10980, 10933

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3216, 10980, 10933

Auto

23.3 19%

Teleop

66.3 55%

Endgame

30.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score154.6pts

Blue projected score120.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.1
Score range: 100–175
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 110.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

526.5Season APEX374.7

32.8Auto23.3

86.9Teleop66.3

29.6Endgame30.7

9Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	15
teleop	73	55
endgame	27	52
foul	5	0
total	140	122

Result

Final score

140 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 8 pts

Match videos

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