Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.62 – 191.69

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 525.7 ±11.7

987HIGHROLLERS

Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 60.18Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 41.92Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 55.52Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490.2 ±11.7

1410The Kraken

Season APEX 104.8Event APEX 65.99Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 63.48Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 62.22Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 987, 4731, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 987, 4731, 2486

Auto

40.5 28%

Teleop

81.1 55%

Endgame

25.6 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1410, 3245, 6413

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1410, 3245, 6413

Auto

35.7 19%

Teleop

103.8 57%

Endgame

43.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157.6pts

Blue projected score191.7pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.1
Score range: 138–212
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 110.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

525.7Season APEX490.2

40.5Auto35.7

81.1Teleop103.8

25.6Endgame43.8

13Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	39
teleop	45	68
endgame	12	88
foul	0	5
total	101	200

Result

Final score

101 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Match videos

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