Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.21 – 110.35

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

150 – 161

Prediction missed · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279 ±16.5

11479Formosa Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 39.38Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7425Green Valley Robotics

Season APEX 119.9Event APEX 72.86Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10183ARC

Season APEX 89.7Event APEX 51.97Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.7 ±12.8

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 67.92Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 29.61Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 12.82Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11479, 7425, 10183

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11479, 7425, 10183

Auto

13.5 8%

Teleop

95.2 58%

Endgame

55.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3216, 10980, 10933

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3216, 10980, 10933

Auto

16.8 15%

Teleop

62.7 56%

Endgame

31.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score164.2pts

Blue projected score110.4pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.9
Score range: 91–183
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 107.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279Season APEX374.7

13.5Auto16.8

95.2Teleop62.7

55.9Endgame31.9

77Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	51
teleop	93	77
endgame	32	28
foul	0	5
total	150	161

Result

Final score

150 – 161

Prediction missed · off by 32.4 pts

Match videos

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