Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.89 – 132.05

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 51 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.8 ±18.1

3019Firebirds

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 25.85Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1212Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 35.8Rank 22Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

991BroncoBots

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 49.24Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.3 ±16.3

7333Ghost

Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 31.52Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6479AZTECH Robotics

Season APEX 110.2Event APEX 59.76Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

60Kingman FIRST Robotics Team 60 (The Bionic Bulldogs)

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 40.77Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3019, 1212, 991

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3019, 1212, 991

Auto

32.7 30%

Teleop

57.3 52%

Endgame

20.1 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7333, 6479, 60

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7333, 6479, 60

Auto

21.6 16%

Teleop

82.5 60%

Endgame

32.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110.9pts

Blue projected score132.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.2
Score range: 92–151
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 107.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.8Season APEX261.3

32.7Auto21.6

57.3Teleop82.5

20.1Endgame32.4

81Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	21
teleop	15	40
endgame	3	24
foul	0	5
total	51	90

Result

Final score

51 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 51 pts

Match videos

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