Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.6 – 128.6

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 57 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.2 ±11.7

1410The Kraken

Season APEX 104.8Event APEX 60.57Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 60.71Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 56.32Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.7 ±12.8

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 72.74Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 35.79Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 20.07Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1410, 3245, 6413

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1410, 3245, 6413

Auto

37.4 21%

Teleop

89.3 51%

Endgame

48.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3216, 10980, 10933

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3216, 10980, 10933

Auto

17.2 13%

Teleop

72.5 56%

Endgame

39.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score177.6pts

Blue projected score128.6pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49
Score range: 110–197
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 107.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.2Season APEX374.7

37.4Auto17.2

89.3Teleop72.5

48.1Endgame39.5

33Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	15
teleop	139	38
endgame	25	6
foul	25	0
total	222	59

Result

Final score

222 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 57 pts

Match videos

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