Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.14 – 108.03

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

245 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 87.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 525.7 ±11.7

987HIGHROLLERS

Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 49.8Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 30.43Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 47.91Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.6 ±13.9

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX -6.34Rank 53Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7425Green Valley Robotics

Season APEX 119.9Event APEX 66.89Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10183ARC

Season APEX 89.7Event APEX 47.48Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 987, 4731, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 987, 4731, 2486

Auto

36.3 29%

Teleop

65.6 53%

Endgame

21.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1165, 7425, 10183

/ 100 compat

Projected

108 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1165, 7425, 10183

Auto

6.3 6%

Teleop

54.3 51%

Endgame

45.7 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score128.1pts

Blue projected score108pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.1
Score range: 89–147
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 106.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

525.7Season APEX266.6

36.3Auto6.3

65.6Teleop54.3

21.3Endgame45.7

51Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	16
teleop	123	77
endgame	37	59
foul	30	15
total	245	167

Result

Final score

245 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 87.9 pts

Match videos

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