Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.55 – 121.2

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

153 – 189

Prediction missed · off by 34.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.8 ±15.8

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 60.97Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6479AZTECH Robotics

Season APEX 110.2Event APEX 61.06Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7333Ghost

Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 32.52Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.5 ±10.4

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 33.83Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 50.06Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 37.31Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9501, 6479, 7333

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9501, 6479, 7333

Auto

23.9 15%

Teleop

92.0 58%

Endgame

42.2 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10114, 3243, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10114, 3243, 2403

Auto

21.2 18%

Teleop

76.0 64%

Endgame

21.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score154.6pts

Blue projected score121.2pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.4
Score range: 102–174
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 105.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.8Season APEX526.5

23.9Auto21.2

92Teleop76

42.2Endgame21.8

46Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	56
teleop	90	110
endgame	22	23
foul	15	0
total	153	189

Result

Final score

153 – 189

Prediction missed · off by 34.7 pts

Match videos

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