Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
373.87 – 130.9
95%5%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
394 – 75
Prediction correct · off by 38 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 650.9 ±13.1
Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 183.6Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 20.94Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 285Event APEX 169.33Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.8 ±18.1
Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 30.78Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76
1212Sentinels
Provisional
Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 43.31Rank 22Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74
Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 56.81Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2122, 2478, 7426
82
/ 100 compatProjected
373.9 pts
~2.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 2122, 2478, 7426
Auto
73.9 21%
Teleop
200.4 56%
Endgame
84.6 24%
Strengths
- · 2122 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3019, 1212, 991
74
/ 100 compatProjected
130.9 pts
~0.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 3019, 1212, 991
Auto
33.5 26%
Teleop
73.8 57%
Endgame
21.3 17%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.45
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score373.9pts
Blue projected score130.9pts
Red win probability95%
Event bonus sample196alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 41%, blue 32%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 243
- Score range
- 112–393
- Upset likelihood
- 5%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
650.9Season APEX194.8
73.9Auto33.5
200.4Teleop73.8
84.6Endgame21.3
8Consistency71
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 91 | 36 |
| teleop | 261 | 22 |
| endgame | 42 | 17 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 394 | 75 |
Result
Final score
394 – 75
Prediction correct · off by 38 pts
Match videos
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