Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.99 – 147.51

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 50.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.2 ±11.7

1410The Kraken

Season APEX 104.8Event APEX 65.5Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 62.8Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 60.69Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.5 ±10.4

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 41.86Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 59.4Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 46.25Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1410, 3245, 6413

/ 100 compat

Projected

189 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1410, 3245, 6413

Auto

35.8 20%

Teleop

94.1 52%

Endgame

52.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10114, 3243, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10114, 3243, 2403

Auto

34.7 24%

Teleop

79.5 56%

Endgame

28.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score189pts

Blue projected score147.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.5
Score range: 128–209
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 113.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.2Season APEX526.5

35.8Auto34.7

94.1Teleop79.5

52Endgame28.8

11Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	25
teleop	52	18
endgame	28	12
foul	45	15
total	166	70

Result

Final score

166 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 50.3 pts

Match videos

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