Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.41 – 152.06

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 42.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.8 ±15.8

7333Ghost

Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 30.95Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 63.68Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6479AZTECH Robotics

Season APEX 110.2Event APEX 59.78Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.5 ±10.4

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 43.24Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 61.01Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 47.81Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7333, 9501, 6479

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7333, 9501, 6479

Auto

25.1 16%

Teleop

88.4 58%

Endgame

38.7 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10114, 3243, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10114, 3243, 2403

Auto

33.2 23%

Teleop

84.4 58%

Endgame

29.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score154.4pts

Blue projected score152.1pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.3
Score range: 132–174
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 113.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.8Season APEX526.5

25.1Auto33.2

88.4Teleop84.4

38.7Endgame29.1

54Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	43
teleop	49	51
endgame	16	27
foul	5	0
total	101	121

Result

Final score

101 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 42.2 pts

Match videos

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