Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

397.24 – 193.8

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

386 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 19.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 650.9 ±13.1

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 190.26Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2478Westwood Robotics

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 29.13Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 177.85Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490.2 ±11.7

1410The Kraken

Season APEX 104.8Event APEX 67.1Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 64.01Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 62.69Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2122, 2478, 7426

/ 100 compat

Projected

397.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2122, 2478, 7426

Auto

80.2 21%

Teleop

231.6 60%

Endgame

77.3 20%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1410, 3245, 6413

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.8 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1410, 3245, 6413

Auto

36.5 20%

Teleop

96.9 52%

Endgame

52.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score397.2pts

Blue projected score193.8pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 203.4
Score range: 174–417
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 552 vs event baseline 111.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

650.9Season APEX490.2

80.2Auto36.5

231.6Teleop96.9

77.3Endgame52.7

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	32
teleop	209	81
endgame	98	48
foul	0	5
total	386	166

Result

Final score

386 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 19.5 pts

Match videos

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