Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

146.14 – 148.02

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 19.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 525.7 ±11.7

987HIGHROLLERS

Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 56.51Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 37.77Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 51.86Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.8 ±15.8

7333Ghost

Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 28.77Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 61.55Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6479AZTECH Robotics

Season APEX 110.2Event APEX 57.7Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 987, 4731, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 987, 4731, 2486

Auto

41.2 30%

Teleop

74.2 54%

Endgame

22.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7333, 9501, 6479

/ 100 compat

Projected

148 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7333, 9501, 6479

Auto

23.8 16%

Teleop

85.6 59%

Endgame

35.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score146.1pts

Blue projected score148pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.9
Score range: 126–168
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 111.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

525.7Season APEX254.8

41.2Auto23.8

74.2Teleop85.6

22.4Endgame35.9

18Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	30
teleop	81	100
endgame	17	49
foul	5	0
total	139	179

Result

Final score

139 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 19.1 pts

Match videos

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