Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.84 – 242.19

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.5 ±18.1

10380The Dragon Hunters

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -3.91Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 32.63Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3019Firebirds

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 31.12Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.7 ±15.2

6833Python Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 33.04Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 183.52Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 25.63Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10380, 10114, 3019

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.8 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10380, 10114, 3019

Auto

12.4 22%

Teleop

33.7 59%

Endgame

11.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6833, 2122, 288

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.2 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6833, 2122, 288

Auto

44.1 19%

Teleop

135.7 58%

Endgame

54.7 23%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score59.8pts

Blue projected score242.2pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -182.3
Score range: 41–261
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 103.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.5Season APEX487.7

12.4Auto44.1

33.7Teleop135.7

11.2Endgame54.7

65Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	66
teleop	18	130
endgame	12	60
foul	0	5
total	52	261

Result

Final score

52 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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