Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.63 – 29.19

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.7 ±17.3

1212Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 35.72Rank 22Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2478Westwood Robotics

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 19.53Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 47.38Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.9 ±16.9

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 35.12Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4146Sabercats

Provisional

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 11.99Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2080Torbotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX -17.92Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1212, 2478, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1212, 2478, 2486

Auto

21.3 22%

Teleop

49.0 50%

Endgame

28.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10980, 4146, 2080

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10980, 4146, 2080

Auto

15.3 54%

Teleop

9.8 35%

Endgame

3.3 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score102.6pts

Blue projected score29.2pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.4
Score range: 10–122
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 103.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.7Season APEX355.9

21.3Auto15.3

49Teleop9.8

28.5Endgame3.3

37Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	13
teleop	54	11
endgame	10	0
foul	50	15
total	139	39

Result

Final score

139 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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