Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.91 – 157.82

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 42 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.6 ±19.3

10380The Dragon Hunters

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -2.61Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 37.59Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 8.93Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 593.4 ±13.5

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 44.56Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 69.51Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6352LAUNCH TEAM

A+

Season APEX 294.5Event APEX 43.75Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10380, 2403, 10506

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10380, 2403, 10506

Auto

9.5 24%

Teleop

21.4 54%

Endgame

8.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10980, 9501, 6352

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10980, 9501, 6352

Auto

31.5 22%

Teleop

83.5 58%

Endgame

29.2 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score43.9pts

Blue projected score157.8pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -113.9
Score range: 25–177
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 103.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.6Season APEX593.4

9.5Auto31.5

21.4Teleop83.5

8.5Endgame29.2

63Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	17
teleop	22	31
endgame	9	29
foul	0	5
total	52	82

Result

Final score

52 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 42 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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