Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.85 – 0

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.5 ±16.4

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 25.27Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 79.89Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3944All Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 0.69Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.4 ±16.8

2080Torbotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX -19.52Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3009High Scalers

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX -0.99Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2478Westwood Robotics

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 16.59Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10114, 3216, 3944

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10114, 3216, 3944

Auto

17.9 17%

Teleop

64.5 60%

Endgame

24.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2080, 3009, 2478

/ 100 compat

Projected

-3.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2080, 3009, 2478

Auto

4.7 0%

Teleop

-15.7 100%

Endgame

0.9 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.9pts

Blue projected score-3.9pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.9
Score range: -19–125
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 103.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.5Season APEX228.4

17.9Auto4.7

64.5Teleop-15.7

24.9Endgame0.9

59Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	12
teleop	98	8
endgame	37	3
foul	5	0
total	144	23

Result

Final score

144 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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