Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.46 – 154.56

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 351.3 ±12.8

987HIGHROLLERS

Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 58.67Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1410The Kraken

Season APEX 104.8Event APEX 61.11Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 16.68Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.8 ±12.8

10183ARC

Season APEX 89.7Event APEX 52.7Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 42.01Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7425Green Valley Robotics

Season APEX 119.9Event APEX 59.85Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 987, 1410, 10933

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 987, 1410, 10933

Auto

35.1 25%

Teleop

80.4 57%

Endgame

25.8 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10183, 2486, 7425

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10183, 2486, 7425

Auto

21.3 14%

Teleop

83.9 54%

Endgame

48.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.5pts

Blue projected score154.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.1
Score range: 118–173
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 102.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

351.3Season APEX453.8

35.1Auto21.3

80.4Teleop83.9

25.8Endgame48.8

72Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	9
teleop	48	110
endgame	38	72
foul	5	0
total	130	191

Result

Final score

130 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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