Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.82 – 83.05

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.3 ±17.2

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX -7.02Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4146Sabercats

Provisional

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 21.97Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 23.87Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.9 ±17

11479Formosa Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 33.91Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9534Wolves Robotics (Basic HS)

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 1.76Rank 51Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6479AZTECH Robotics

Season APEX 110.2Event APEX 47.38Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10988, 4146, 4731

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10988, 4146, 4731

Auto

13.9 34%

Teleop

23.8 59%

Endgame

2.7 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11479, 9534, 6479

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11479, 9534, 6479

Auto

10.6 12%

Teleop

53.5 60%

Endgame

24.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score38.8pts

Blue projected score83.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.2
Score range: 21–101
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 100.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.3Season APEX238.9

13.9Auto10.6

23.8Teleop53.5

2.7Endgame24.8

3Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	17
teleop	12	88
endgame	12	26
foul	10	0
total	47	131

Result

Final score

47 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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