Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.56 – 239.25

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 106.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±15

11100Team Epsilon

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 13.04Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7755Phantom Circuits

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 25.78Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7425Green Valley Robotics

Season APEX 119.9Event APEX 43.74Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.6 ±17.7

7333Ghost

Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 39.79Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10380The Dragon Hunters

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 13.94Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 185.52Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11100, 7755, 7425

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11100, 7755, 7425

Auto

1.3 2%

Teleop

43.9 53%

Endgame

38.3 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7333, 10380, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7333, 10380, 2122

Auto

39.9 18%

Teleop

130.6 59%

Endgame

52.5 24%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82.6pts

Blue projected score239.3pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -156.7
Score range: 65–257
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 99.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.9Season APEX396.6

1.3Auto39.9

43.9Teleop130.6

38.3Endgame52.5

54Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	20
teleop	105	90
endgame	62	26
foul	15	0
total	193	136

Result

Final score

193 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 106.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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