Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.52 – 43.26

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

122 – 9

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 499.5 ±12.8

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX 11.41Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 33.51Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 70.6Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.4 ±20.5

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 5.74Rank 46Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8012APEX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 13.11Rank 48Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11100Team Epsilon

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 24.41Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10988, 10980, 3216

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10988, 10980, 3216

Auto

16.0 14%

Teleop

61.8 55%

Endgame

35.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11176, 8012, 11100

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11176, 8012, 11100

Auto

4.7 12%

Teleop

22.3 55%

Endgame

13.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.5pts

Blue projected score43.3pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.3
Score range: 22–137
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 116.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

499.5Season APEX156.4

16Auto4.7

61.8Teleop22.3

35Endgame13.4

56Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	5
teleop	71	1
endgame	48	3
foul	0	0
total	122	9

Result

Final score

122 – 9

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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