Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.33 – 38.96

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

49 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.1 ±14.5

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 81.25Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 24.08Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10905Team LOVE

Season APEX 70Event APEX -10Rank 47Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.6 ±22.5

9777Knights of the Lab Table

Provisional

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 5.98Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8012APEX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 7.83Rank 48Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4146Sabercats

Provisional

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 25.15Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9501, 9059, 10905

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9501, 9059, 10905

Auto

18.2 21%

Teleop

40.4 47%

Endgame

27.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9777, 8012, 4146

/ 100 compat

Projected

39 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9777, 8012, 4146

Auto

10.8 33%

Teleop

10.8 33%

Endgame

11.3 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score95.3pts

Blue projected score39pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.4
Score range: 21–113
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 68 vs event baseline 100.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.1Season APEX143.6

18.2Auto10.8

40.4Teleop10.8

27.7Endgame11.3

59Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	17
teleop	18	2
endgame	7	0
foul	0	0
total	49	19

Result

Final score

49 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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