Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.29 – 76.75

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 35.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.2 ±19.3

698Hamilton Microbots

Provisional

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 22.72Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 15.9Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 72.67Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.7 ±13.5

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 41.61Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 17.11Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5933JudgeMent Call Robotics

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 18.03Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 698, 10506, 3245

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 698, 10506, 3245

Auto

18.6 19%

Teleop

55.6 57%

Endgame

23.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2403, 4731, 5933

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2403, 4731, 5933

Auto

18.9 27%

Teleop

44.8 65%

Endgame

5.7 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score111.3pts

Blue projected score76.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.5
Score range: 59–129
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 100.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.2Season APEX312.7

18.6Auto18.9

55.6Teleop44.8

23.7Endgame5.7

58Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	18
teleop	22	72
endgame	33	18
foul	0	0
total	71	108

Result

Final score

71 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 35.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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