Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

109.1 – 74.15

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

109 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.6 ±18.7

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 48.73Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11479Formosa Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 32.39Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6833Python Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 27.98Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.3 ±11.9

3009High Scalers

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 7.82Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 37.77Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 28.56Rank 52Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6413, 11479, 6833

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6413, 11479, 6833

Auto

28.2 28%

Teleop

47.3 46%

Endgame

26.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3009, 288, 244

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3009, 288, 244

Auto

8.0 11%

Teleop

39.0 54%

Endgame

25.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score109.1pts

Blue projected score74.2pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.9
Score range: 56–127
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 100.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.6Season APEX302.3

28.2Auto8

47.3Teleop39

26.4Endgame25

78Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	17
teleop	60	13
endgame	18	8
foul	0	0
total	109	38

Result

Final score

109 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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