Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

240.37 – 199.68

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

241 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 19 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 549.6 ±11.2

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 189.04Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 3.37Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 47.96Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.2 ±12.4

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 147.03Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX -16.54Rank 53Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

991BroncoBots

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 69.19Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2122, 10933, 10980

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2122, 10933, 10980

Auto

36.1 16%

Teleop

127.6 57%

Endgame

60.1 27%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7426, 1165, 991

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7426, 1165, 991

Auto

41.3 22%

Teleop

88.5 48%

Endgame

54.6 30%

Strengths

· 7426 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score240.4pts

Blue projected score199.7pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.7
Score range: 182–258
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 478 vs event baseline 98.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

549.6Season APEX439.2

36.1Auto41.3

127.6Teleop88.5

60.1Endgame54.6

78Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	77
teleop	127	112
endgame	66	48
foul	0	0
total	241	237

Result

Final score

241 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 19 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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