Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.13 – 71.01

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 97

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 160.2 ±20.5

11100Team Epsilon

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 21.41Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9704IgKnighted

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 28.29Rank 50Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2840PCDS Blue Tide

Provisional

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 28.43Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 150.5 ±20.8

3019Firebirds

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 13.25Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1212Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 36.26Rank 22Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4146Sabercats

Provisional

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 21.5Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11100, 9704, 2840

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11100, 9704, 2840

Auto

8.0 10%

Teleop

40.5 51%

Endgame

30.5 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3019, 1212, 4146

/ 100 compat

Projected

71 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3019, 1212, 4146

Auto

16.2 21%

Teleop

53.7 69%

Endgame

8.3 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.1pts

Blue projected score71pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.1
Score range: 53–96
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 99.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

160.2Season APEX150.5

8Auto16.2

40.5Teleop53.7

30.5Endgame8.3

36Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	28
teleop	8	49
endgame	0	20
foul	0	0
total	23	97

Result

Final score

23 – 97

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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