Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.44 – 20.45

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 450.8 ±12.8

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 63.52Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX -23.17Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10183ARC

Season APEX 89.7Event APEX 36.09Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.7 ±21.4

2478Westwood Robotics

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 9.83Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX -9.44Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

698Hamilton Microbots

Provisional

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 20.06Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3245, 10988, 10183

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3245, 10988, 10183

Auto

7.0 9%

Teleop

45.3 59%

Endgame

24.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2478, 996, 698

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2478, 996, 698

Auto

2.1 8%

Teleop

11.0 44%

Endgame

12.0 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score76.4pts

Blue projected score20.5pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56
Score range: 2–94
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 100.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

450.8Season APEX197.7

7Auto2.1

45.3Teleop11

24.5Endgame12

47Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	11
teleop	84	26
endgame	55	29
foul	0	15
total	155	81

Result

Final score

155 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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