Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.75 – 109.3

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.2 ±17.7

7425Green Valley Robotics

Season APEX 119.9Event APEX 35.41Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10905Team LOVE

Season APEX 70Event APEX -7.86Rank 47Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3944All Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 10.2Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.1 ±17.7

1828BoxerBots

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 40.92Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6479AZTECH Robotics

Season APEX 110.2Event APEX 43.62Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 24.76Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7425, 10905, 3944

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7425, 10905, 3944

Auto

8.9 21%

Teleop

22.7 54%

Endgame

10.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1828, 6479, 10506

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1828, 6479, 10506

Auto

19.1 17%

Teleop

50.6 46%

Endgame

39.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score37.8pts

Blue projected score109.3pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.5
Score range: 20–127
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 100.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.2Season APEX219.1

8.9Auto19.1

22.7Teleop50.6

10.8Endgame39.5

102Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	21
teleop	37	45
endgame	7	34
foul	0	0
total	61	100

Result

Final score

61 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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