Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.01 – 64.67

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

48 – 16

Prediction missed · off by 30.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.9 ±16.3

3019Firebirds

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 20.76Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6352LAUNCH TEAM

A+

Season APEX 294.5Event APEX 38.38Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX 0.87Rank 53Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296 ±16.9

3944All Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 3.68Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9534Wolves Robotics (Basic HS)

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 7.65Rank 51Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 53.34Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3019, 6352, 1165

/ 100 compat

Projected

60 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3019, 6352, 1165

Auto

14.4 31%

Teleop

16.7 36%

Endgame

15.2 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3944, 9534, 6413

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3944, 9534, 6413

Auto

13.0 21%

Teleop

36.9 59%

Endgame

12.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score60pts

Blue projected score64.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.7
Score range: 39–86
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 64 vs event baseline 116.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.9Season APEX296

14.4Auto13

16.7Teleop36.9

15.2Endgame12.4

52Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	13
teleop	26	3
endgame	13	0
foul	0	0
total	48	16

Result

Final score

48 – 16

Prediction missed · off by 30.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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