Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.32 – 155.22

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

149 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.2 ±15.2

987HIGHROLLERS

Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 54.04Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6833Python Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 26.02Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 23.26Rank 52Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.2 ±13.9

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 72.64Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 77.57Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 5.01Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 987, 6833, 244

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 987, 6833, 244

Auto

27.7 28%

Teleop

60.9 61%

Endgame

11.8 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9501, 3216, 4731

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9501, 3216, 4731

Auto

20.3 14%

Teleop

91.4 61%

Endgame

37.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score103.3pts

Blue projected score155.2pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.9
Score range: 85–173
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 98.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.2Season APEX273.2

27.7Auto20.3

60.9Teleop91.4

11.8Endgame37.5

111Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	48
teleop	75	127
endgame	37	44
foul	0	0
total	149	219

Result

Final score

149 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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