Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.46 – 94.91

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

231 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 68.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 420 ±16.6

2662RoboKrew

Provisional

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX -30.55Rank 54Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2080Torbotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX -30.59Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 173.6Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.8 ±19.3

4146Sabercats

Provisional

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 25.59Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2840PCDS Blue Tide

Provisional

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 31.08Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 38.24Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2662, 2080, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2662, 2080, 2122

Auto

27.6 29%

Teleop

44.8 47%

Endgame

22.5 24%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4146, 2840, 6413

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4146, 2840, 6413

Auto

18.8 20%

Teleop

52.3 56%

Endgame

23.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score112.5pts

Blue projected score94.9pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.5
Score range: 77–130
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 97.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

420Season APEX295.8

27.6Auto18.8

44.8Teleop52.3

22.5Endgame23

93Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	28
teleop	122	45
endgame	47	41
foul	15	0
total	231	114

Result

Final score

231 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 68.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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