Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.17 – 65.99

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 457 ±15.2

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 6.79Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9704IgKnighted

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 23.23Rank 50Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 136.15Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.5 ±17.7

60Kingman FIRST Robotics Team 60 (The Bionic Bulldogs)

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 63.52Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

698Hamilton Microbots

Provisional

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 17.76Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX -15.29Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10114, 9704, 7426

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10114, 9704, 7426

Auto

41.4 25%

Teleop

89.7 54%

Endgame

33.6 20%

Strengths

· 7426 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 60, 698, 10988

/ 100 compat

Projected

66 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 60, 698, 10988

Auto

11.6 18%

Teleop

36.3 55%

Endgame

17.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score166.2pts

Blue projected score66pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.2
Score range: 49–183
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 96.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

457Season APEX319.5

41.4Auto11.6

89.7Teleop36.3

33.6Endgame17.9

13Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	14
teleop	92	15
endgame	60	6
foul	15	0
total	218	35

Result

Final score

218 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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