Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

38.07 – 34.8

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 29

Prediction missed · off by 8.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 135.5 ±20

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 5.44Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9777Knights of the Lab Table

Provisional

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 11.5Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10380The Dragon Hunters

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 21.13Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.3 ±20

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 0.37Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3944All Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 8.93Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3424Corax

Season APEX 119.3Event APEX 25.5Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10933, 9777, 10380

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10933, 9777, 10380

Auto

13.4 36%

Teleop

8.8 24%

Endgame

14.9 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 996, 3944, 3424

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 996, 3944, 3424

Auto

14.2 30%

Teleop

24.0 51%

Endgame

9.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score38.1pts

Blue projected score34.8pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.3
Score range: 17–56
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 55 vs event baseline 98.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

135.5Season APEX221.3

13.4Auto14.2

8.8Teleop24

14.9Endgame9.3

46Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	7
teleop	11	14
endgame	6	8
foul	0	0
total	26	29

Result

Final score

26 – 29

Prediction missed · off by 8.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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