Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.28 – 69.55

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.7 ±14.5

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 69.39Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX -7.78Rank 53Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10905Team LOVE

Season APEX 70Event APEX 4.67Rank 47Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.7 ±13.5

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX -10.61Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 49.3Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1828BoxerBots

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 30.86Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3216, 1165, 10905

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3216, 1165, 10905

Auto

8.2 13%

Teleop

31.6 49%

Endgame

25.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4731, 3245, 1828

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4731, 3245, 1828

Auto

9.3 14%

Teleop

36.5 54%

Endgame

22.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score66.3pts

Blue projected score69.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.3
Score range: 48–88
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 97.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.7Season APEX332.7

8.2Auto9.3

31.6Teleop36.5

25.3Endgame22.3

129Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	33
teleop	36	91
endgame	14	17
foul	0	0
total	67	141

Result

Final score

67 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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