Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.99 – 54.49

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

181 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.6 ±16.4

1410The Kraken

Season APEX 104.8Event APEX 56.68Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 39.24Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8012APEX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX -18.93Rank 48Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190 ±18.2

5933JudgeMent Call Robotics

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 26.22Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6833Python Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 24.97Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9534Wolves Robotics (Basic HS)

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 3.3Rank 51Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1410, 10980, 8012

/ 100 compat

Projected

77 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1410, 10980, 8012

Auto

13.5 19%

Teleop

40.7 56%

Endgame

18.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5933, 6833, 9534

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5933, 6833, 9534

Auto

9.5 21%

Teleop

36.2 79%

Endgame

0.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score77pts

Blue projected score54.5pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.5
Score range: 36–95
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 97.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.6Season APEX190

13.5Auto9.5

40.7Teleop36.2

18.6Endgame0

83Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	18
teleop	100	5
endgame	37	3
foul	0	0
total	181	26

Result

Final score

181 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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