Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.88 – 87.72

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 558.6 ±11.7

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 42.98Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

987HIGHROLLERS

Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 55.72Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6479AZTECH Robotics

Season APEX 110.2Event APEX 35.18Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.1 ±16.8

6352LAUNCH TEAM

A+

Season APEX 294.5Event APEX 10.13Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

11100Team Epsilon

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 29.56Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7333Ghost

Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 48.03Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2486, 987, 6479

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2486, 987, 6479

Auto

37.8 28%

Teleop

78.9 58%

Endgame

19.7 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6352, 11100, 7333

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6352, 11100, 7333

Auto

5.8 7%

Teleop

50.6 64%

Endgame

22.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score133.9pts

Blue projected score87.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.2
Score range: 71–151
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 96.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

558.6Season APEX426.1

37.8Auto5.8

78.9Teleop50.6

19.7Endgame22.6

149Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	15
teleop	75	64
endgame	53	31
foul	0	5
total	166	115

Result

Final score

166 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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