Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.89 – 105.86

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 7.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.8 ±16.6

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 8.47Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 23.5Rank 52Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8717Cyber Vipers

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 25.92Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.2 ±15.5

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 26.81Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

698Hamilton Microbots

Provisional

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 26.77Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 52.28Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 996, 244, 8717

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 996, 244, 8717

Auto

8.5 16%

Teleop

28.3 53%

Endgame

17.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 288, 698, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 288, 698, 2486

Auto

19.6 20%

Teleop

51.9 52%

Endgame

27.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57.9pts

Blue projected score105.9pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48
Score range: 37–127
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 116.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.8Season APEX436.2

8.5Auto19.6

28.3Teleop51.9

17Endgame27.4

36Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	17
teleop	24	58
endgame	15	27
foul	0	0
total	47	102

Result

Final score

47 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 7.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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