Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

58.95 – 53.6

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 56.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.7 ±15.4

7755Phantom Circuits

Season APEX 94.8Event APEX 20.88Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3019Firebirds

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 11.56Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 26.51Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.9 ±17

2478Westwood Robotics

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 1.39Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11479Formosa Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 27.93Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 24.28Rank 52Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7755, 3019, 2403

/ 100 compat

Projected

59 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7755, 3019, 2403

Auto

11.4 22%

Teleop

21.3 41%

Endgame

19.2 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2478, 11479, 244

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2478, 11479, 244

Auto

7.6 16%

Teleop

25.6 54%

Endgame

14.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score59pts

Blue projected score53.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.4
Score range: 37–76
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 96.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.7Season APEX253.9

11.4Auto7.6

21.3Teleop25.6

19.2Endgame14.5

131Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	15
teleop	86	58
endgame	21	14
foul	15	0
total	139	87

Result

Final score

139 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 56.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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