Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.35 – 40.74

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 80.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.2 ±15.5

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 32.4Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6413Degrees of Freedom

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 31.15Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 38.8Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.6 ±15.6

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX -3.92Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 33.09Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1212Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 11.57Rank 22Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10506, 6413, 288

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10506, 6413, 288

Auto

15.9 16%

Teleop

39.5 40%

Endgame

44.5 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9059, 3243, 1212

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9059, 3243, 1212

Auto

25.0 63%

Teleop

15.1 38%

Endgame

-0.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.84 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score102.4pts

Blue projected score40.7pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.6
Score range: 24–119
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 94.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.2Season APEX332.6

15.9Auto25

39.5Teleop15.1

44.5Endgame-0.7

33Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	26
teleop	60	91
endgame	48	44
foul	5	5
total	138	166

Result

Final score

138 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 80.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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