Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.71 – 71.36

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.2 ±15.6

10905Team LOVE

Season APEX 70Event APEX 5.11Rank 47Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1828BoxerBots

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 50.01Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3009High Scalers

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 23.59Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 372.3 ±13.5

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 24.52Rank 52Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3019Firebirds

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX -1.26Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 48.1Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10905, 1828, 3009

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10905, 1828, 3009

Auto

18.7 25%

Teleop

19.9 27%

Endgame

35.8 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 244, 3019, 10980

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 244, 3019, 10980

Auto

12.5 15%

Teleop

50.6 61%

Endgame

19.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.7pts

Blue projected score71.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.3
Score range: 55–95
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 117 vs event baseline 90.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.2Season APEX372.3

18.7Auto12.5

19.9Teleop50.6

35.8Endgame19.5

109Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	22
teleop	13	37
endgame	6	14
foul	0	15
total	29	88

Result

Final score

29 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 33.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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