Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

84.74 – 52.54

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 71.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396.2 ±16.4

6833Python Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX -2.46Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 53.74Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 33.46Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.5 ±20

10988Desert Storm

Season APEX 167.1Event APEX -1.07Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3944All Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 34.36Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9091A.W.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 19.25Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6833, 9501, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6833, 9501, 2486

Auto

15.4 20%

Teleop

37.0 48%

Endgame

24.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10988, 3944, 9091

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10988, 3944, 9091

Auto

6.2 14%

Teleop

24.4 55%

Endgame

14.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score84.7pts

Blue projected score52.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.2
Score range: 37–101
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 88.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396.2Season APEX249.5

15.4Auto6.2

37Teleop24.4

24Endgame14.1

112Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	0
teleop	108	8
endgame	23	4
foul	25	5
total	192	17

Result

Final score

192 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 71.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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