Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.14 – 187.37

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364 ±16.4

9704IgKnighted

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 2.31Rank 50Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3424Corax

Season APEX 119.3Event APEX 29.95Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

987HIGHROLLERS

Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 56.88Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.4 ±16.1

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 8.43Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 5.91Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 173.03Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9704, 3424, 987

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9704, 3424, 987

Auto

27.4 31%

Teleop

39.8 45%

Endgame

21.9 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10506, 9059, 7426

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10506, 9059, 7426

Auto

49.2 27%

Teleop

85.5 46%

Endgame

50.3 27%

Strengths

· 7426 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.1pts

Blue projected score187.4pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98.2
Score range: 68–208
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 116.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364Season APEX394.4

27.4Auto49.2

39.8Teleop85.5

21.9Endgame50.3

52Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	49
teleop	67	83
endgame	25	78
foul	0	25
total	128	235

Result

Final score

128 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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