Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.58 – 110.92

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

87 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 68.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.9 ±20.8

11176RoboRabbits

Provisional

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 32.6Rank 46Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11479Formosa Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 47.79Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7333Ghost

Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 54.19Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.7 ±19.4

1212Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 32.91Rank 22Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX 23.94Rank 53Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 54.07Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11176, 11479, 7333

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11176, 11479, 7333

Auto

22.7 17%

Teleop

81.4 60%

Endgame

30.6 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1212, 1165, 10506

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1212, 1165, 10506

Auto

7.6 8%

Teleop

39.4 44%

Endgame

43.4 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.6pts

Blue projected score110.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.7
Score range: 95–151
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 109 vs event baseline 89.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.9Season APEX155.7

22.7Auto7.6

81.4Teleop39.4

30.6Endgame43.4

150Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	14
teleop	59	3
endgame	13	5
foul	0	0
total	87	22

Result

Final score

87 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 68.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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