Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.74 – 3.7

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

42 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 29.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.9 ±14.5

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 11.34Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

60Kingman FIRST Robotics Team 60 (The Bionic Bulldogs)

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 62.46Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 8.94Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170 ±20.5

11100Team Epsilon

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 19.94Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2662RoboKrew

Provisional

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX -22.51Rank 54Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

996Mecha Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 6.27Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4731, 60, 9059

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4731, 60, 9059

Auto

25.7 31%

Teleop

40.2 48%

Endgame

17.7 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11100, 2662, 996

/ 100 compat

Projected

3.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11100, 2662, 996

Auto

13.6 100%

Teleop

-4.3 0%

Endgame

2.8 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82.7pts

Blue projected score3.7pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79
Score range: -13–100
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 64 vs event baseline 91.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.9Season APEX170

25.7Auto13.6

40.2Teleop-4.3

17.7Endgame2.8

0Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	2
teleop	17	6
endgame	10	14
foul	0	0
total	42	22

Result

Final score

42 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 29.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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