Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.35 – 68.34

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.2 ±10.4

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 38.6Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 9.62Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 37.13Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.6 ±16.1

9704IgKnighted

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 21.78Rank 50Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 22.98Rank 52Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7425Green Valley Robotics

Season APEX 119.9Event APEX 23.58Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3245, 10114, 10980

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3245, 10114, 10980

Auto

14.6 17%

Teleop

48.4 58%

Endgame

20.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9704, 244, 7425

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9704, 244, 7425

Auto

4.1 6%

Teleop

28.5 44%

Endgame

32.8 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.4pts

Blue projected score68.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17
Score range: 52–101
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 91.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.2Season APEX268.6

14.6Auto4.1

48.4Teleop28.5

20.9Endgame32.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	12
teleop	74	38
endgame	26	19
foul	0	0
total	124	69

Result

Final score

124 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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