Qualification · Qualification 26
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
111.12 – 20.73
75%25%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
186 – 124
Prediction correct · off by 89.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.8 ±16.6
4146Sabercats
Provisional
Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 1.65Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
Season APEX 285Event APEX 96.24Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 13.23Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±16.9
Season APEX 191.4Event APEX -15.31Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 19.14Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92
10380The Dragon Hunters
Provisional
Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 16.9Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4146, 7426, 5933
75
/ 100 compatProjected
111.1 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 4146, 7426, 5933
Auto
26.3 28%
Teleop
31.8 34%
Endgame
34.9 38%
Strengths
- · 7426 anchors offense
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6413, 1828, 10380
17
/ 100 compatProjected
20.7 pts
~0.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 6413, 1828, 10380
Auto
21.2 99%
Teleop
4.0 19%
Endgame
-3.7 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 0.93
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score111.1pts
Blue projected score20.7pts
Red win probability75%
Event bonus sample196alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 40%, blue 40%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 90.4
- Score range
- 5–127
- Upset likelihood
- 25%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
397.8Season APEX296.4
26.3Auto21.2
31.8Teleop4
34.9Endgame-3.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 51 | 30 |
| teleop | 112 | 46 |
| endgame | 23 | 43 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 186 | 124 |
Result
Final score
186 – 124
Prediction correct · off by 89.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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