Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.57 – 80.32

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 53.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.4 ±17

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 31.41Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2080Torbotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX -8.2Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

11479Formosa Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 26.36Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.2 ±17.2

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 39.66Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

698Hamilton Microbots

Provisional

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 30.8Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10933Tie Dye Samurai

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 9.86Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3216, 2080, 11479

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3216, 2080, 11479

Auto

9.6 18%

Teleop

34.7 65%

Endgame

8.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9501, 698, 10933

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9501, 698, 10933

Auto

8.1 10%

Teleop

49.2 62%

Endgame

21.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score49.6pts

Blue projected score80.3pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.7
Score range: 34–96
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 87.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.4Season APEX188.2

9.6Auto8.1

34.7Teleop49.2

8.7Endgame21.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	23
teleop	70	49
endgame	32	31
foul	0	5
total	129	108

Result

Final score

129 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 53.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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