Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.05 – 0

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 53 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.5 ±19.3

2662RoboKrew

Provisional

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX -2.89Rank 54Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9091A.W.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 29.87Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 36.07Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.8 ±21.4

7333Ghost

Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 15Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3944All Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 24.11Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8012APEX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX -47.78Rank 48Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2662, 9091, 288

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2662, 9091, 288

Auto

8.4 14%

Teleop

25.6 42%

Endgame

26.3 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7333, 3944, 8012

/ 100 compat

Projected

-8.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7333, 3944, 8012

Auto

9.1 0%

Teleop

-12.4 100%

Endgame

-5.1 61%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.73 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.1pts

Blue projected score-8.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.1
Score range: -16–79
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 95 vs event baseline 89.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.5Season APEX149.8

8.4Auto9.1

25.6Teleop-12.4

26.3Endgame-5.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	14
teleop	6	42
endgame	7	13
foul	5	0
total	26	69

Result

Final score

26 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 53 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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